Training workshop in population size estimation, 15-18 June 2026
June 15 @ 8:00 am - June 18 @ 5:00 pm UTC+0
Description
Establishing the size of various populations at risk for HIV has been identified as one of the greatest challenges in HIV surveillance and in developing estimates of HIV prevalence and incidence. Reliable estimates of the size of populations at high risk of HIV are important for prioritizing target populations, planning HIV prevention services, measuring coverage with these services and monitoring and evaluation of interventions. Credible estimates of population size contribute to documenting progress in HIV prevention scale-up and in obtaining continued funding for the provision of various services.
The aim of the course is to provide participants with practical guidance on how to design studies to estimate the size of populations at higher risk for HIV (female sex workers [FSW], people who inject drugs [PWID], men who have sex with men [MSM]), conduct these studies, and, interpret and use the data. The course will provide examples of lessons learned around the world in implementation of size estimates studies and challenges in interpretation of various data sources.
Key topics of the course are:
- Methods of population size estimates: geographical mapping; virtual mapping, multiplier method; three-source capture-recapture; network scale-up
- Interpreting diverging results of the size estimates studies
- Extrapolation of data at sub-national and national level
- Calculating indicators of programme coverage based on the size estimation data
- Designing size estimates studies and writing-up results
Objectives of the course are the following:
- To learn about various methods and field procedures for size estimation studies
- To learn how to use multiple data sources to develop size estimates and how to extrapolate local-level results to sub-national and national level
- To build skills in developing protocols for estimation studies
- To acquire skills in the analysis of size estimation data
Participants will be given an opportunity to share their own country-specific experiences and challenges in estimating the size of high-risk groups.
Teaching Methods
The course consists of lectures, presentation of case studies, active class discussion, exercises and group work. The course is designed to provide participants with practical skills and knowledge on how to conduct size estimation studies.
Target Audience
Epidemiologists, demographers, public health professionals, social scientists
Lecturers
Professor George W. Rutherford, MD, Global Health Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, USA
Ivana Bozicevic, MD, DrPH, WHO Collaborating Centre for HIV Surveillance, School of Medicine, University of Zagreb, Croatia
Zoran Dominkovic, MSc, WHO Collaborating Centre for HIV Surveillance, School of Medicine, University of Zagreb, Croatia
Duration and site:
The course takes place in four days and will be conducted virtually over zoom
The fee for the course is 600 USD.
The course is organized by:
WHO Collaborating Centre for HIV Strategic Information
School of Public Health “Andrija Štampar”
School of Medicine, University of Zagreb
Rockefellerova 4
10 000 Zagreb, Croatia
Phone: + 385 1 45 90 142/ 45 90 100
Fax: + 385 1 46 84 212
Programme:
|
15 June 2026 |
Agenda |
| 9.00-9.30 | Welcome |
| 9.30-10.00 | Introduction to population size estimates: Overview of who, why and how |
| 10.00-10.30 | Presentations by participants: Experiences and challenges of size estimates in the countries |
| 10.30-10.45 | Programmatic mapping |
| 10.45–11.30 | Exercise: programmatic mapping |
| 11.30–11.45 | Break |
| 11.45-12.30 | Presentations by participants: Experiences and challenges of size estimates in the countries |
| 12.30-13.30 | Virtual mapping |
| 13.30- 14.30 | Lunch |
| 14.30-15.30 | Two-source and three source capture-recapture |
| 15.30-16.30 | Exercise: Mapping and capture-recapture |
|
16 June 2026 |
|
| 9.00-9.15 | Summary of Day 1 |
| 9.00-10.45 | Intergated bio-behavioural surveys and multiplier method |
| 9.45-10.30 | Data sources and questions for the multiplier method |
| 10.30-10.45 | Break |
| 10.45-11.30 | Exercise: multiplier method |
| 11.30-12.30 | Methods based on data collected from the general population:
Adding direct questions to population based surveys Network scale-up |
| 12.30-13.00 | Choosing appropriate PSE method |
| 13.00-14.00 | Lunch |
| 14.00-14.45 | Comparing diverging size estimates results obtained from the same population |
| 14.45-15.30 | Exercise: comparing diverse results of size estimation studies |
| 15.30 –15.45 | Break |
| 15.45- 16.30 | Introduction to group or individual work supported by facilitators
Option 1: Development of a protocol to implement most-at-risk population size estimation studies Option 2: Analysis of size estimation data that participant have and writing up results for different audiences (journal publications, policy briefs, etc) |
|
17 June 2026 |
|
|
9.00-10.00 |
Data triangulation and synthesis before extrapolation |
| 10.00-10.45 | Data extrapolation: Making national estimates using sub-national data |
| 10.45-11.00 | Break |
| 11.00-11.45 | Other methods of PSE: Sequential sampling (as part of respondent-driven sampling)
|
| 11.45-12.30 | Measuring coverage with interventions and using size estimation data |
| 12.30-13.00 | Exercise: Measuring coverage with interventions |
| 13.00-14.00 | Lunch break |
| 14.00-14.30 | Discussion about the most effective PSE methods in various contexts and scenarios
|
| 14.30-16.30 | Group or individual work supported by facilitators |
|
18 July 2012 |
|
| 9.00-10.00 | Global experiences in size estimates |
| 10.00-10.15 | Break |
| 10.15-13.00 | Presentations of participants |
| 13.00-14.00 | Closure |