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HIV surveillance in key populations

October 24 @ 8:00 am - October 28 @ 5:00 pm UTC+0

24-28 October 2022


The aim of the course is to provide participants with practical guidance on how to design bio-behavioural HIV surveys and conduct estimation of the size of key populations (female sex workers [FSW], people who inject drugs [PWID], men who have sex with men [MSM]) and transgender persons), conduct these studies, and analyze, interpret and use the data. The course will outline the approaches that can be used for extrapolating local data to develop national size estimates by applying various adjustments.

 The course will provide a detailed outline of design of integrated bio-behavioural HIV surveys (IBBS) that are based on time-location (TLS) and respondent-driven sampling (RDS). Presentations and exercises will address a number of issues relevant for the appropriate implementation of IBBS, data analysis and construction and interpretation of key indicators.

Presentations will also reflect on various methods of population size estimation (PSE) that are most commonly used, including the emerging new approach of virtual mapping.

The course will also describe how to generate HIV prevention and treatment casedes in KPs, using IBBS, PSE and and routine programme data.

 Lectures will be followed by discussions about case studies to enable interactive exchange of knowledge and experiences.


Key topics of the course are:

  • Design and implementation of TLS and RDS
  • Methods used to estimate the size of KPs: mapping (including mapping of virtual platforms); multiplier method; two and three-source capture-recapture;
  • Circumstances when it is appropriate to use specific size estimation methods
  • Extrapolation from local size estimation to sub-national and national estimates using extrapolation procedures
  • Data quality challenges in IBBS and PSE studies
  • Framework for HIV prevention and treatment cascade
  • Use of HIV cascades as management tools that identify gaps and related barriers and as advocacy tools for indicating points for intervention to enhance programme effectiveness


Participants will be given opportunities to share their own country-specific experiences and challenges in IBBS and estimating the size of KPs.

Key aspect of the course is a group/individual work on development of protocols/ proposals. Participants can choose between these options:

  1. To develop a protocol for an IBBS or a PSE study
  2. To construct  HIV prevention or treatment cascades using their own data

 Participants will present the results of this work on the final day of the course.


Teaching Methods

The course consists of lectures, presentation of case studies, active class discussion, exercises and group work. The course is designed to provide participants with practical skills and knowledge on how to conduct size estimation studies.


Target Audience

Epidemiologists, demographers, public health professionals, social scientists



The course will be held in Zagreb, Croatia.



Professor George Rutherford, MD, Global Health Sciences, University of California, San Francisco

Associate professor Ivana Bozicevic, MD, DrPH, WHO Collaborating Centre for HIV Strategic Information, School of Medicine, University of Zagreb, Croatia

Zoran Dominkovic, WHO Collaborating Centre for HIV Strategic Information, School of Medicine, University of Zagreb, Croatia




24 October 2022



9.00-9.30 Welcome and Introductions
9.30-10.00 Principles of HIV surveillance in key populations  (KPs)
10.00-10.30 Design of integrated bio-behavioural surveys (IBBS) in KPs

Importance of formative assessment before IBBS

10.30-10.50 Break
11.00-11.30 Country presentations


11.30-12.30 Designs of bio-behavioural surveys in key populations –

Respondent driven  sampling –  I part (principles, formative assessment, study flow, seeds)

12.30-13.30 Lunch
13.30-14.15 Exercise 1: Pre-surveillance assessment in key populations
14.15-14.35  Break
14.35-15.30 Respondent-driven sampling – II part (RDS data collection forms, staff responsibilities and coupon management file)
15.30-16.30 Exercise 2: Respondent-driven sampling

25 October 2022



9.00-9.45 Time-location sampling – I (formative assessment with mapping, sampling frame development, study flow)


10.00-11.00 Time-location sampling – II (data collection forms, staff roles, implementation)
11.00-11.20 Break
11.20-12.00 Selecting and constructing key indicators from IBBS
12.00-13.00 Exercise 3: Interpretation of indicators on coverage with HIV prevention from IBBS and programme data
13.00-14.00 Lunch
14.00-15.15 IBBS data analysis
15.15-15.30 Break
15.30-16.30 Using IBBS to construct HIV prevention cascades in in key populations





26 October 2022

9.00-9.30 Principles of population size estimation (PSE) in KPs
9.30-10.15  PSE – Geographical mapping
10.15-10.30 Break
10.30-11.15 PSE – Multiplier method
11.15-12.00 PSE – Capture-recapture


11.00–11.45 PSE – Virtual mapping
11.45-12.30 Exercise 4. Population size estimation
12.30-13.30 Lunch


13.30-14.00 Introduction to protocol/ proposal development exercise


14.00-16.30 Protocol/proposal development exercise 1: Selection of protocol design; Background; Aims and objectives


27 October 2022  


9.00-10.00 Extrapolation from local size estimation to sub-nation and national estimates using extrapolation procedures
10.00-11.00 Exercise 5: Extrapolation of local PSE to sub-national or national level 
11.00-11.15 Break
11.15-12.15 Using IBBS and programme data sources to construct HIV treatment cascades in KPs
12.15-13.00 Protocol/ proposal development exercise 2: Methods    
13.00-14.00 Lunch
14.00-15.15 Protocol/ proposal development exercise 2: Methods
15.15-15.30 Break
15.30-16.30 Protocol/ proposal development exercise 2: Organisational issues – staff selection, training of staff, organization of supervision

28 October 2022



9.00-10.00 Presentations of protocols/ proposals
10.00-10.15 Break
10.15-12.30 Presentations of protocols/ proposals
12.30-13.00 Evaluations and closure
13.00-14.00 Lunch




October 24 @ 8:00 am UTC+0
October 28 @ 5:00 pm UTC+0
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